Where the Mets stand in their hunt for pitching (2024)

On Trade Deadline Eve, the starting pitching market started to go haywire.

The chief culprits were the Houston Astros, who shipped a huge package of talent to Toronto for two months of Yusei Kikuchi. The Mets had discussed Kikuchi, according to people familiar with the matter, but were not going to go as far as the Astros did. It was a move that would only solidify the steep asking prices for high-level starters like Garrett Crochet, Jack Flaherty and Blake Snell.

Since they’re recent entrants into the market for starting pitching, what should the Mets do? Should they abandon their carefully laid plans for being sustainably competitive in 2024 and move a big-name prospect for a front-line starter? Should they settle for more depth in that rotation? Should they forget about the rotation and bulk up the bullpen? Or should they zag and decide that in the face of high prices, the best course is to keep your money (and your prospects) in your pocket?

MIN 2
NYM 15
Final

It wasn't that close. The Mets are 56-50.

— Tim Britton (@TimBritton) July 30, 2024

And which way did they tip their hand on Monday night?

The case for a splashy starter, like Blake Snell

Close your eyes and think of the best way the next two months can go. The Mets continue mashing the baseball, pitching well enough and arriving in October with games still on the schedule. It’s Game 1 of the Wild Card Series against rival Atlanta, and up against Cy Young contender Chris Sale the Mets are starting …

Who do you want that to be? Do you want Luis Severino, with nearly as many innings on his arm as he compiled in the last four years combined? Sean Manaea, who’s finished six innings six times in 20 tries? Jose Quintana, who’s done it eight times in 21 starts?

Or do you want the dude who won the honest-to-goodness Cy Young last year? Who has a long and consistent track record of being absolute nails in the second halves of seasons, who maybe pitches well enough down the stretch to shift that Game 1 to Citi Field?

Last winter notwithstanding, it is not difficult to explain why any team would want Snell. He’s been a very good pitcher for a long time.

It is even easier to explain why the Mets would want Snell. He provides something their rotation lacks by missing bats. He struck out 15 hitters in his last start against the Rockies; only twice this season have Mets starters struck out more than 15 combined over a two-game stretch. (Both came around Severino’s 10-strikeout game against the Cubs at Wrigley Field.)

The arguments against Snell, many of which prevented the Mets from serious pursuit of the lefty last winter, don’t exist in the same way. Back then, it looked like it would take a five-year deal of at least nine figures long to sign him. It would require sacrificing a draft pick. The Mets had an ace in Kodai Senga.

Now, there’s a prospect cost, of course, and Monday’s deals increase that cost. But Snell is owed just $2 million the rest of this year and can then opt out of the $30 million he’s owed next season. Either the Mets get a rental or they pay $32 million for a season and a third of Snell, which is a bargain. And Senga is out for the season.

If the opt-out clause makes it too complicated to swing a deal, hit Ctrl-F and replace his last name with “Flaherty.” Detroit’s Jack Flaherty provides many of the same benefits without the recent hardware. He’s a basic rental.

The case for adding a mid-tier or depth starter

The Mets have made it this far without an ace leading their rotation. Fortifying the group while not paying top dollar can enhance their chances of making the playoffs without sacrificing as much from their future.

Some solid starters, including the Tampa Bay Rays’ Zack Littell and the Colorado Rockies’ Cal Quantrill, remain on the market. Both pitchers are under club control through next season. And much like how the Mets acquired reliever Ryne Stanek from the Seattle Mariners, there’s always the possibility of a team improving their rotation and creating a surplus. For instance, could the Cincinnati Reds flip Jakob Junis?

The Mets’ rotation features concerns about workload and performance. Their starters had a combined 3.6 fWAR ahead of Monday’s game, which ranked 27th in MLB.

Severino, the Mets’ best available starter, is up to 120 2/3 innings after throwing just 209 1/3 innings the previous five years combined. Manaea was not a full-time starter last year. Quintana is 35 years old. David Peterson and Tylor Megill have never demonstrated an ability to pitch beyond the fifth inning with much success. Beyond those five — Christian Scott (elbow) is out indefinitely — the Mets do not have much in the form of reliable depth. Adding a decent starter could bump Megill or Peterson out of the rotation (both have minor-league options) and help cover innings over the final two months.

The case for maximizing the bullpen (and moving Jose Buttó)

The Mets already have a sizable upgrade over Megill on their roster. He picked up the three-inning save in the 15-2 win Monday night. His name is Jose Buttó.

Yes, Buttó has been a revelation in the bullpen. But nothing about his performance in the pen tracks as unsustainable were he to shift back to starting, which remains the Mets’ long-term plan with Buttó. So, the Mets just need to create the conditions to move Buttó back to the rotation, and they can do that by further shoring up their bullpen.

As of late Monday night, this approach stood out as a likely outcome. Buttó pitched three innings Monday night because the team wanted to keep him stretched out and an option for the rotation. The Mets have already added some to their pen, acquiring Phil Maton and Stanek in the last few weeks. There’s room for a couple more additions. After all, following Jake Diekman’s designation for assignment on Monday, just two of the eight relievers on New York’s Opening Day roster were still in uniform Monday night, the others on the IL or let go.

Giving up a big prospect for two months of Tanner Scott is neither David Stearns’ style nor our best counsel. Instead, the Mets can look to pull a two-fer with a team that possesses a valuable lefty and a helpful righty. That could be the White Sox with Tanner Banks and John Brebbia (or Steven Wilson). That could be the Angels with Matt Moore and Luis Garcia. That could be — you’re never gonna believe this suggestion — the Tigers with Andrew Chafin and Shelby Miller.

Brebbia, whom the Mets have discussed as a potential target, would be the prize out of that grouping; he’s been the best reliever in the majors by WAR since June 1.

Bring two more names in, and you’ve got a pen built around them, Maton, Stanek, Edwin Díaz and Dedniel Núñez when healthy. (The more pitchers you bring in, the more careful you can be with Núñez down the stretch.) Building a deep and diverse pen helps mitigate the brevity you’d expect from New York’s starters once you get into the postseason. And there, of course, you can slot Buttó back in as a multi-inning monster and let him eat.

The case for standing pat

Admittedly, this is the hardest case to make. The Mets should continue to add.

But prices remained high through Monday night because the market is light on sellers. There are barely any rental starters left. Kikuchi was expected to be one of the cheaper alternatives, and he came at a steep price. If the equation calls for an overpay, does it still make sense to pour more into 2024 when FanGraphs on Monday gave the Mets a 45 percent shot at making the playoffs?

Severino, Manaea and Quintana have all pitched mostly well. And the Mets have already added relief help to a bullpen that has performed better since the All-Star break. If the Mets don’t do anything, they’d be left with their current rotation plus depth options in Triple A such as Joey Lucchesi, Mike Vasil and Dominic Hamel (the latter two have never appeared in the major leagues).

(Top photo of Jose Buttó: Adam Hunger / Associated Press)