Storm Prediction Center Convective Outlook (2024)

1. Storm Prediction Center Convective Outlooks

Conv. Outlooks
SPC Convective Outlook Products Page

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2. NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center

Convective Outlooks · Day 1 Convective Outlook · Day 2 Convective Outlook · Text
Latest SPC Publications

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3. MI - Storm Prediction Center

Day 4-8: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center Convective Outlook
Day 1: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center Convective Outlook

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4. SPC Products - Storm Prediction Center

SPC issues Day 1, Day 2, and Day 3 Convective Outlooks that depict non-severe thunderstorm areas and severe thunderstorm threats across the contiguous United ...
Severe weather information from the Storm Prediction Center.

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5. SPC Convective Outlooks - National Weather Service

Storm Prediction Center Convective Outlooks. To view a product, move your mouse over any of the product labels below.
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SPC Convective

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6. Day 1: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center Convective Outlook ...

Day 4-8: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center Convective Outlook
Day 1: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center Convective Outlook

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7. Storm Prediction Center Convective Outlooks - F5Weather

Convective Outlooks, Tornado, Hail & Wind Outlooks from the Storm Prediction Center.

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8. [PDF] Storm Prediction Center Severe Risk Categories

The categorical forecast specifies the level of the overall severe weather threat via numbers (e.g., 5), descriptive labeling (e.g., HIGH), and colors (e.g. ...

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9. PA - Storm Prediction Center

Day 4-8: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center Convective Outlook
Day 1: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center Convective Outlook

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10. What the Storm Prediction Center's Thunderstorm Outlook Means

16 mrt 2021 · What the Storm Prediction Center's Thunderstorm Outlook Means · At a Glance · Marginal Risk - Category 1 · Slight Risk - Category 2 · Enhanced Risk ...
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When meteorologists discuss slight, moderate or high severe risks, here's what that all means. - Articles from The Weather Channel | weather.com

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11. Secrets of the SPC: How daily convective outlook graphics are made

2 nov 2022 · The SPC Convective Outlook for Oct. 23, 2022. (NOAA Storm Prediction Center). For the general severe weather outlooks, the maps show areas of ...
The SPC, based in Norman, Oklahoma, oversees messaging and forecasting any potential large-scale severe weather. Their popular convective outlook maps display risk levels for general severe weather threats, as well as specific maps detailing risk for tornadoes, large hail and damaging wind gusts.

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12. EAX - Storm Prediction Center

Day 1: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center Convective Outlook Random image. Day 2: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center Convective Outlook
Day 1: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center Convective Outlook

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13. All Severe Weather Outlooks for the next 8 days

tornado 2%. wind 5%. hail low. Detailed Outlook. SPC AC 140056. Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024.
show me my personal outlook →

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14. Investigating Public Interpretation of the Storm Prediction Center

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) convective outlook is one of the oldest continuous. 53 severe weather forecasts, having existed in one form or another ...

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15. FFC - Storm Prediction Center

Day 1: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center Convective Outlook Random image. Day 2: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center Convective Outlook
Day 1: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center Convective Outlook

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16. Weather Index

A Convective Outlook is a forecast containing the area(s) of expected thunderstorm occurrence and expected severity over the contiguous United States.

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17. Colorful Language: Investigating Public Interpretation of ... - NASA ADS

Although severe weather forecast products, such as the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) convective outlook, are much more accurate than climatology at ...
Although severe weather forecast products, such as the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) convective outlook, are much more accurate than climatology at day-to-week time scales, tornadoes and severe thunderstorms claim dozens of lives and cause billions of dollars in damage every year. While the accuracy of this outlook has been well documented, less work has been done to explore the comprehension of the product by nonexpert users like the general public. This study seeks to fill this key knowledge gap by collecting data from a representative survey of U.S. adults in the lower 48 states about their use and interpretation of the SPC convective outlook. Participants in this study were asked to rank the words and colors used in the outlook from least to greatest risk, and their answers were compared through visualizations and statistical tests across multiple demographics. Results show that the U.S. public ranks the outlook colors similarly to their ordering in the outlook but switches the positions of several of the outlook words as compared to the operational product. Logistic regression models also reveal that more numerate individuals more correctly rank the SPC outlook words and colors. These findings suggest that the words used in the convective outlook may confuse nonexpert users, and that future work should continue to use input from public surveys to test potential improvements in the choice of outlook words. Using more easily understood words may help to increase the outloo...

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18. The SPC 5-point severe thunderstorm risk category scale explained

6 mei 2024 · "SPC" refers to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, based in Norman, Oklahoma and monitors severe weather threats around the nation that include the ...
When severe weather is lurking in the neighborhood, you'll likely see social media posts referencing "SPC" risks such as "Slight," "Enhanced," "Moderate" or “High.”

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19. [PDF] The Impact of the Storm Prediction Center's Convective Outlooks and ...

11 jun 2021 · in the Day 1 Convective Outlook (Storm Prediction. Center 2021). In ... Are you aware of the Storm Prediction Center's (SPC) Convective Outlooks?

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20. TCF - TFM Convective Forecast - Aviation Weather Center

4, 6, & 8 Hour TFM Convective Forecast. No Canadian TCF Convection is not expected to reach TCF criteria 390 390 340 03Z Fri.
High confidence forecast of thunderstorm coverage

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Storm Prediction Center Convective Outlook (2024)

FAQs

How often does Storm Prediction Center update? ›

The Convective Outlook is issued 5 times daily: at 06Z (the initial day-1 outlook, valid 12Z that day until 12Z the following day), 13Z and 1630Z (the "morning updates," valid until 12Z the next day), 20Z (the "afternoon update," valid until 12Z the next day), and the 01Z (the "evening update," valid until 12Z the ...

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How long does a convective outlook last? ›

Convective Outlook Issuance Times

Each Day 1 Convective Outlook is valid from the start of issuance (except for the 0600 UTC issuance which begins at 1200 UTC that day) through 1200 UTC the following day (except for the 0100 UTC issuance which is valid through that day).

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What is a convective outlook chart? ›

The traditional Convective Outlook is a categorical forecast that specifies the perceived level of threat via the descriptive wording: Slight Risk, Moderate Risk, and High Risk.

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What does marginal risk mean in weather? ›

Marginal Risk (of severe thunderstorms) An area of severe storms of either limited organization and longevity, or very low coverage and marginal intensity. Specifically, 2% probability or greater tornado probability OR. 2% probability or greater for severe hail (≥1" / ≥2.4cm) OR.

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How rare is a high risk? ›

In general use, a 10% chance that an outcome would occur would be termed a “small possibility” [42] or a “very low chance” [43], but, when verbal labels are used to describe the likelihood of an uncommon adverse (usually medical) event, it has been suggested that risks of 1 in 100 (much lower than a 10% chance) should ...

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What does a level 4 storm mean? ›

WHAT DOES A LEVEL 4 MODERATE RISK MEAN? A moderate risk means widespread severe thunderstorms are likely, including long-lived and intense thunderstorms.

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Should you fly in a convective outlook? ›

Moral of the story, don't fly under, or anywhere near thunderstorms. Hail and downdrafts along with severe turbulence can easily reach 20 miles from the EDGE of a thunderstorm into clear air where you wouldn't expect it (due to winds aloft, etc.).

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Which US state has the greatest frequency of severe thunderstorms? ›

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one which produces winds of 58 mph or greater, 3/4 inch hail or larger or tornadoes. Areas over west central Florida experience more thunderstorms per year on average than any other location in the U.S. with > 100 per year (See graph above).

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Is a derecho a convective storm? ›

A derecho (pronounced similar to "deh-REY-cho" in English, or pronounced phonetically as " ") is a widespread, long-lived wind storm associated with a band of rapidly moving showers or thunderstorms variously known as a squall line, bow echo, or quasi-linear convective system.

Is a tornado a convective storm? ›

So, what is a convective storm? It is the collective name for severe thunderstorms, including heavy rainfall, strong winds, hail and tornadoes.

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What is a Level 5 tornado threat? ›

On the scale from one to five, a high risk is a level five; thus, high risks are issued only when forecasters at the SPC are confident of a major severe weather outbreak.

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What are the 5 levels of severe weather? ›

Those levels from 1 to 5 respectively are MARGINAL, SLIGHT, ENHANCED, MODERATE, and HIGH. An area under a MARGINAL risk for severe weather will feature a threat of isolated severe weather. Any severe thunderstorms that do form are usually limited in organization, longevity, and coverage.

What does 10 tornado risk mean? ›

Reaching the 10% threshold indicates a notable increase in the tornado threat. These forecasts are often associated with enhanced or moderate risk days, where several tornadoes are possible, and the potential for a stronger tornado (EF2 or greater) increases.

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Is a moderate thunderstorm bad? ›

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) uses a five-point scale, ranging from "Marginal" to "High" Risk, and a Moderate Risk is the second-highest option. This means that there is significant potential for dangerous weather compared to Slight Risk and Enhanced Risk areas.

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How often does the weather API update? ›

How often is data updated? Realtime weather is updated every 10-15 minute. Whereas forecast weather data is updated every 4-6 hours in a day.

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How often are weather predictions accurate? ›

The accuracy of weather predictions tends to decrease as the forecast period extends. The success rate for one-day forecasts is about 96-98%. It drops to about 90% for three-day forecasts. The more days in advance the forecast, the more likely it is that the weather will change.

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How often are weather forecast models updated? ›

Below are some of the models used by the National Weather Service. This table contains contour plots of data from the NAM forecast model. This model gives forecast information out to 84 hours and are updated once every 6 hours at roughly 02:00 PST and 08:00 PST.

Storm Prediction Center Convective Outlook (2024)

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